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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Başakşehir and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Başakşehir and Kayserispor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.58 xG and Kayserispor 1.29 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.02 / defence 1.08 against Kayserispor attack 0.95 / defence 1.08, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 44% | Draw 25% | Kayserispor 31%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 58%, Kayserispor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Kayserispor's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.50 PPG, Kayserispor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights