Başakşehir 4-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kasımpaşa make the trip to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to face Başakşehir in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Monday 8 August 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
Başakşehir's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Başakşehir haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Başakşehir have posted 6W 1D 3L at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Kasımpaşa have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kasımpaşa haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Kasımpaşa away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Başakşehir against 2.10 for Kasımpaşa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Başakşehir 2W, Kasımpaşa 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 3–2 with Başakşehir winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Başakşehir half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Başakşehir 55% and Kasımpaşa 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 53% | Kasımpaşa 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.55 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.022 / defence 0.845 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.230 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.406. Kasımpaşa have an above-average attack strength of 1.230 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Başakşehir games / 38 Kasımpaşa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 39% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 35%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Kasımpaşa 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 50% | Kasımpaşa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 8 Aug 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 39% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Başakşehir 1.55 / Kasımpaşa 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.022 / def 0.845 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.230 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Kasımpaşa xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:15 on Monday 8 August 2022 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Başakşehir 4 - 0 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 39% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa?
Record (2 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 0 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.02x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (1.23x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
39%
2.57
26%
3.82
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.01
1.46
Kasımpaşa xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
7%
13.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.46 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 19W 8D 11L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. Başakşehir haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 15W 8D 15L from 38 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. Kasımpaşa haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.39 for Kasımpaşa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 2.00 PPG from 19 outings (12W 2D 5L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 7W 4D 8L from 19 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Başakşehir are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.76 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Pre-Season
Kasımpaşa
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 19W 8D 11L in their last 38 games (1.71 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 15W 8D 15L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.00 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Başakşehir have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Başakşehir won 4-0 on 8 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Başakşehir
1
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 9, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Başakşehir 4-0 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 47%, Kasımpaşa 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Başakşehir) and 53% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Başakşehir have failed to score in 26% of games; Kasımpaşa in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 58% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Başakşehir's matches and 53% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Kasımpaşa 4-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.55 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.46 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.02 / defence 0.84 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.23 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 39% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 35%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 53%, Kasımpaşa 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.71 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.