Başakşehir 2-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kasımpaşa make the trip to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to face Başakşehir in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Başakşehir's overall Süper Lig record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Başakşehir have posted 5W 1D 2L at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Kasımpaşa have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa away from home this season: 0W 2D 5L from 7 away games — 0.29 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Başakşehir. A 1.60 PPG lead over Kasımpaşa (2.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Başakşehir half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 53% versus Kasımpaşa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 67% | Kasımpaşa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.34 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.979 / defence 0.991 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.587 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.117. Data: 15 Başakşehir games / 15 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 52% | Draw 31% | Kasımpaşa 17%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.92 | Draw 3.23 | Kasımpaşa 5.88. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 38% | Kasımpaşa 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 52% | Draw 31% | Kasımpaşa 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 36% | xG Başakşehir 1.34 / Kasımpaşa 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.979 / def 0.991 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.587 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Kasımpaşa xG
36%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Başakşehir 2 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 52% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 0.98x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (0.59x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
52%
1.91
31%
3.26
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
1.99
0.65
Kasımpaşa xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
4%
22.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 11.9 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.65 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 8W 1D 6L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 2W 5D 8L from 15 games, 0.73 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kasımpaşa.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 2.29 PPG from 7 outings (5W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Başakşehir are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 0W 2D 5L from 7 away games — 0.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kasımpaşa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Başakşehir are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 0.93 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 8W 1D 6L in their last 15 games (1.67 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 5D 8L in their last 15 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.29 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Başakşehir have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Başakşehir won 4-0 on 8 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Başakşehir
1
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 9, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Başakşehir 4-0 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 43%, Kasımpaşa 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Başakşehir) and 29% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Başakşehir have failed to score in 29% of games; Kasımpaşa in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 43% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Başakşehir's recent games and 29% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Kasımpaşa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Kasımpaşa 2-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.34 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.65 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.59 / defence 1.18, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 52% | Draw 31% | Kasımpaşa 17%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 67%, Kasımpaşa 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.73. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.