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Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Kasımpaşa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Kasımpaşa 4-0 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.88 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.19 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.20 / defence 0.95 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.06 / defence 1.11, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 51% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 21%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 58%, Kasımpaşa 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.55 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights