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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa finished level at 2-2 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.69 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.23 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.24 / defence 0.88 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.20 / defence 0.83, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 46% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 26%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 43%, Kasımpaşa 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.57 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights