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Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Gaziantep FK 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Gaziantep FK 2-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.64 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.07 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.96 / defence 0.90 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 50% | Draw 25% | Gaziantep FK 25%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 45%, Gaziantep FK 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.58 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights