Başakşehir 0-7 Galatasaray – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Galatasaray fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Galatasaray at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Başakşehir have posted 7W 2D 1L at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Galatasaray stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Galatasaray, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Galatasaray's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Başakşehir) versus 2.10 (Galatasaray). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Başakşehir's 20% rate and Galatasaray's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Başakşehir have won 0, Galatasaray 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (50 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Galatasaray in-play tendencies (50 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 48% versus Galatasaray 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 48% | Galatasaray 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.11 xG and Galatasaray 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.073 / defence 0.697 | Galatasaray attack 0.913 / defence 0.697. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.348. Galatasaray's defence strength of 0.697 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Başakşehir's defence rating of 0.697 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Başakşehir games / 50 Galatasaray games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 41% | Draw 32% | Galatasaray 27%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Galatasaray 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 20% | Galatasaray 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Galatasaray | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 41% | Draw 32% | Galatasaray 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Başakşehir 1.11 / Galatasaray 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.073 / def 0.697 | Galatasaray attack 0.913 / def 0.697 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Galatasaray xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Galatasaray kick off?
Başakşehir vs Galatasaray kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Galatasaray?
Başakşehir 0 - 7 Galatasaray.
Where is Başakşehir vs Galatasaray being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Galatasaray part of?
Başakşehir vs Galatasaray is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Galatasaray?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 41% chance of winning, Galatasaray a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Galatasaray?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Başakşehir and Galatasaray will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Galatasaray have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Galatasaray?
Record (2 meetings): Başakşehir 0W | Draws 2 | Galatasaray 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Galatasaray in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Galatasaray (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.07) and Galatasaray's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Galatasaray's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
41%
2.46
32%
3.14
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
1.97
0.86
Galatasaray xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.86 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Galatasaray?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 26W 11D 13L from 50 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Galatasaray, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 16L across 50 games — 1.52 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Galatasaray is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.78 PPG, Galatasaray on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 17W 3D 6L from 26 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Galatasaray's away record stands at 8W 9D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Galatasaray are on 1.34 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Galatasaray
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Galatasaray in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 26W 11D 13L in their last 50 games (1.78 PPG), while Galatasaray have gone 21W 13D 16L in their last 50 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Galatasaray away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.08 PPG; Galatasaray away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Galatasaray been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Galatasaray in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Galatasaray runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Galatasaray go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2022, when Galatasaray won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Galatasaray specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Başakşehir
2
Draws
8
Galatasaray
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Galatasaray?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 0, Galatasaray have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Galatasaray last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Galatasaray 3-0 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Galatasaray?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 38%, Galatasaray 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Başakşehir) and 38% (Galatasaray).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Galatasaray in 35%; Başakşehir have failed to score in 27% of games; Galatasaray in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Galatasaray away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Galatasaray?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 46% of Galatasaray's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Galatasaray usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Başakşehir's recent games and 38% of Galatasaray's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Galatasaray tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Galatasaray in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Galatasaray run riot with a 0-7 hammering of Başakşehir.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray beat Başakşehir 0-7 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.11 xG and Galatasaray 0.86 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-7 for 7 actual goals. Başakşehir fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Galatasaray outscored their 0.86 projection by 6.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.07 / defence 0.70 against Galatasaray attack 0.91 / defence 0.70, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 41% | Draw 32% | Galatasaray 27%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Galatasaray win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 48%, Galatasaray 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (50 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Galatasaray's trading profile (50 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.78 PPG, Galatasaray 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Galatasaray win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Galatasaray (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.