Başakşehir 0-0 Galatasaray – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Galatasaray fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Galatasaray at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Başakşehir have posted 6W 1D 3L at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Galatasaray stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Galatasaray's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Başakşehir) versus 1.80 (Galatasaray). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Başakşehir have won 0, Galatasaray 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Galatasaray in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 54% versus Galatasaray 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 54% | Galatasaray 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.53 xG and Galatasaray 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.957 / defence 0.914 | Galatasaray attack 0.692 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.347. Galatasaray bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Başakşehir's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Başakşehir games / 35 Galatasaray games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 52% | Draw 29% | Galatasaray 19%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Galatasaray 5.26. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 50% | Galatasaray 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Galatasaray | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 52% | Draw 29% | Galatasaray 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Başakşehir 1.53 / Galatasaray 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.957 / def 0.914 | Galatasaray attack 0.692 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Galatasaray xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Galatasaray kick off?
Başakşehir vs Galatasaray kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Galatasaray?
Başakşehir 0 - 0 Galatasaray.
Where is Başakşehir vs Galatasaray being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Galatasaray part of?
Başakşehir vs Galatasaray is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Galatasaray?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 52% chance of winning, Galatasaray a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Galatasaray?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Başakşehir and Galatasaray will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Galatasaray have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Galatasaray?
Record (1 meetings): Başakşehir 0W | Draws 1 | Galatasaray 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Galatasaray in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Galatasaray (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (0.96) and Galatasaray's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Galatasaray's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
52%
1.94
29%
3.45
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.38
0.85
Galatasaray xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
4%
23.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.85 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Galatasaray?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 18W 6D 11L from 35 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Galatasaray, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 14L across 35 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.71 PPG, Galatasaray on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 11W 1D 5L from 17 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Galatasaray's away record stands at 4W 5D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Galatasaray are on 1.34 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Current Season
Galatasaray
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Galatasaray in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 18W 6D 11L in their last 35 games (1.71 PPG), while Galatasaray have gone 13W 8D 14L in their last 35 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Galatasaray away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.00 PPG; Galatasaray away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Galatasaray been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Galatasaray in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Galatasaray runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Galatasaray go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2022, when Galatasaray won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Galatasaray specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Başakşehir
2
Draws
8
Galatasaray
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Galatasaray?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 0, Galatasaray have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Galatasaray last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Galatasaray 3-0 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Galatasaray?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 47%, Galatasaray 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Başakşehir) and 47% (Galatasaray).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Galatasaray in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Galatasaray away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Galatasaray?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 53% of Galatasaray's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Galatasaray usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Başakşehir's recent games and 47% of Galatasaray's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Galatasaray tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Galatasaray in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Başakşehir's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir and Galatasaray finished level at 0-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.53 xG and Galatasaray 0.85 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Başakşehir fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Galatasaray landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against Galatasaray attack 0.69 / defence 1.31, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 52% | Draw 29% | Galatasaray 19%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 54%, Galatasaray 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Galatasaray's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.71 PPG, Galatasaray 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Galatasaray (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.