🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Galatasaray edge out Başakşehir 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Galatasaray beat Başakşehir 1-2 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 0.69 xG and Galatasaray 1.68 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.86 / defence 0.93 against Galatasaray attack 1.39 / defence 0.61, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 13% | Draw 28% | Galatasaray 59%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 54%, Galatasaray 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Galatasaray's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.65 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights