Başakşehir 1-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 30 as Başakşehir welcome Fenerbahçe to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 19 April 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's home record at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fenerbahçe are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Başakşehir, 1 for Fenerbahçe and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Fenerbahçe winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 46% versus Fenerbahçe 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 45% | Fenerbahçe 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.07 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.883 / defence 0.878 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.297 / defence 0.713. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.287. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.713 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 65 Başakşehir games / 65 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 27% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 46%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Fenerbahçe 2.17. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 20% | Fenerbahçe 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Apr 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 27% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Başakşehir 1.07 / Fenerbahçe 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.883 / def 0.878 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.297 / def 0.713 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Fenerbahçe xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 18:30 on Wednesday 19 April 2023 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Başakşehir 1 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 27% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
Record (3 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 0 | Fenerbahçe 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
27%
3.65
27%
3.77
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.54
1.47
Fenerbahçe xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
6%
15.81
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.47 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 32W 14D 19L from 65 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 40W 13D 12L across 65 games — 2.05 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.69 PPG, Fenerbahçe on 2.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 21W 3D 8L from 32 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 19W 7D 6L across 32 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.15 scored and 1.08 conceded. Fenerbahçe's attacking output running into Başakşehir's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 60%.
Last 65 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 32W 14D 19L in their last 65 games (1.69 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 40W 13D 12L in their last 65 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.06 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2023, when Fenerbahçe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
1
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 34%, Fenerbahçe 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Başakşehir) and 62% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Başakşehir have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 66% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Başakşehir's recent games and 62% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Başakşehir 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Başakşehir 1-2 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.07 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.47 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.88 / defence 0.88 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.30 / defence 0.71, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 27% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 46%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 45%, Fenerbahçe 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.69 PPG, Fenerbahçe 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fenerbahçe win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.