🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 14 as Başakşehir welcome Fenerbahçe to Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 December 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Başakşehir haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Başakşehir's home record at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.

Fenerbahçe — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Fenerbahçe haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Fenerbahçe away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Başakşehir 1.80 PPG, Fenerbahçe 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Fenerbahçe, who boast 7 victories compared to 2 for Başakşehir.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Fenerbahçe winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Başakşehir trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Fenerbahçe trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 56% versus Fenerbahçe 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 62% | Fenerbahçe 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.70 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.171 / defence 0.885 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.258 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Başakşehir games / 34 Fenerbahçe games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Başakşehir 46% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 27%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Fenerbahçe 3.70. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 50% | Fenerbahçe 40%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights