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Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Başakşehir.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Başakşehir 1-4 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.23 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.84 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.97 / defence 0.91 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.69 / defence 0.77, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 25% | Draw 23% | Fenerbahçe 52%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 47%, Fenerbahçe 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.34 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights