Başakşehir 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 7 as Başakşehir welcome Fatih Karagümrük to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Başakşehir are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Başakşehir, 2 for Fatih Karagümrük and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 49% versus Fatih Karagümrük 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 49% | Fatih Karagümrük 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.02 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.303 / defence 0.606 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.820 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.285. Başakşehir carry an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Başakşehir's defence rating of 0.606 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Başakşehir games / 43 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 70% | Draw 19% | Fatih Karagümrük 11%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.43 | Draw 5.26 | Fatih Karagümrük 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 70% | Draw 19% | Fatih Karagümrük 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 41% | xG Başakşehir 2.02 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.303 / def 0.606 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.820 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Fatih Karagümrük xG
41%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Başakşehir 0 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 70% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (2 meetings): Başakşehir 0W | Draws 0 | Fatih Karagümrük 2W.
What form are Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.30) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
70%
1.43
19%
5.17
11%
9.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.66
0.64
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
9.39
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
13%
7.57
Win to Nil
37%
2.70
1%
71.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.64 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 23W 9D 11L from 43 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 15L across 43 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.81 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 15W 2D 4L from 21 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Başakşehir are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 6W 5D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.28 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Early Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 23W 9D 11L in their last 43 games (1.81 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.24 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Başakşehir have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
3
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Başakşehir 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 43%, Fatih Karagümrük 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Başakşehir) and 57% (Fatih Karagümrük). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 48% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Başakşehir's matches and 57% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Başakşehir's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, as Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.02 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.64 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Başakşehir fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.30 / defence 0.61 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 70% | Draw 19% | Fatih Karagümrük 11%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 49%, Fatih Karagümrük 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.81 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.