Başakşehir 1-2 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 27 as Başakşehir welcome Fatih Karagümrük to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Başakşehir 1.80 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Başakşehir, 1 for Fatih Karagümrük and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 1–3 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 54% versus Fatih Karagümrük 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 54% | Fatih Karagümrük 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.15 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.161 / defence 1.009 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.735 / defence 1.652. League average goals — home 1.123 / away 1.150. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.652 — this is suppressing Başakşehir's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Başakşehir games / 26 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 67% | Draw 20% | Fatih Karagümrük 13%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Fatih Karagümrük 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 70% | Fatih Karagümrük 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 67% | Draw 20% | Fatih Karagümrük 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 51% | xG Başakşehir 2.15 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.161 / def 1.009 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.735 / def 1.652 | league avg home 1.123 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Fatih Karagümrük xG
51%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Başakşehir 1 - 2 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 67% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (1 meetings): Başakşehir 0W | Draws 0 | Fatih Karagümrük 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.16) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.65), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
67%
1.50
20%
4.96
13%
7.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.01
0.85
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
7.59
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
12%
8.61
Win to Nil
28%
3.52
2%
65.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.85 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 14W 4D 8L from 26 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 10W 6D 10L across 26 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.77 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 9W 1D 3L from 13 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 4W 2D 7L across 13 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.19 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 14W 4D 8L in their last 26 games (1.77 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 10W 6D 10L in their last 26 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.15 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Başakşehir have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
3
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Başakşehir 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 54%, Fatih Karagümrük 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Başakşehir and 62% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 46% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Başakşehir's matches and 62% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fatih Karagümrük defy the odds to beat Başakşehir 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Başakşehir 1-2 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.15 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.85 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Başakşehir fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Fatih Karagümrük outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.16 / defence 1.01 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.73 / defence 1.65, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 67% | Draw 20% | Fatih Karagümrük 13%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Fatih Karagümrük win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 54%, Fatih Karagümrük 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.77 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.