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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 18 as Başakşehir welcome Fatih Karagümrük to Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this season.

Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 1W 1D 6L from 8 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Başakşehir are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Başakşehir, 3 for Fatih Karagümrük and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Başakşehir winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).

Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 59% versus Fatih Karagümrük 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 47% | Fatih Karagümrük 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.21 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.266 / defence 0.994 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.655 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.291. Başakşehir carry an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.304 — this is suppressing Başakşehir's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Başakşehir games / 17 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Başakşehir 66% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 10%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.52 | Draw 4.35 | Fatih Karagümrük 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (66%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

Fatih Karagümrük lead the H2H ledger, but Başakşehir carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 80% | Fatih Karagümrük 50% BTTS from recent games.

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