Başakşehir 3-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 45%, yet in-form Beşiktaş provide a compelling counter-argument — this Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Beşiktaş at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 2W 0D 6L from 8 outings — a 0.75 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's home record at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu: 2W 0D 2L from 4 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.75 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 5W 2D 1L from 8 Süper Lig matches — 2.12 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.12 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Beşiktaş's 2.12 PPG return is 1.37 points per game ahead of Başakşehir's 0.75 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 38% versus Beşiktaş 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 50% | Beşiktaş 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.32 xG and Beşiktaş 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.949 / defence 0.925 | Beşiktaş attack 0.956 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.101. Data: 8 Başakşehir games / 8 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 45% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 28%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Beşiktaş 3.57. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beşiktaş (2.12 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 0% | Beşiktaş 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 15 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 45% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Başakşehir 1.32 / Beşiktaş 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.949 / def 0.925 | Beşiktaş attack 0.956 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Beşiktaş xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 15 October 2021 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Başakşehir 3 - 2 Beşiktaş.
Where is Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş part of?
Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 45% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Başakşehir and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Başakşehir and Beşiktaş in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 2W-0D-6L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-2D-1L in 8 | 2.12 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (0.95) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.59
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.30
0.97
Beşiktaş xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
7%
13.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.97 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 2W 0D 6L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş's form line: 5W 2D 1L from 8 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 1.37 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Başakşehir.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.75 PPG overall — Başakşehir are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beşiktaş's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 2W 0D 6L in their last 8 games (0.75 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Beşiktaş away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.00 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Beşiktaş go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Başakşehir
3
Draws
4
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 3, Beşiktaş have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Başakşehir 2-3 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Beşiktaş see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Başakşehir 0% BTTS, Beşiktaş 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Başakşehir) and 67% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 33%; Başakşehir have failed to score in 33% of games; Beşiktaş in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 67% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Başakşehir's recent games and 67% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Beşiktaş 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Beşiktaş 3-2 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.32 xG and Beşiktaş 0.97 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beşiktaş outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.95 / defence 0.93 against Beşiktaş attack 0.96 / defence 1.16, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 45% | Draw 28% | Beşiktaş 28%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 50%, Beşiktaş 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Başakşehir winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.