Başakşehir 2-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 40%, yet in-form Başakşehir provide a compelling counter-argument — this Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Antalyaspor at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 27 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Başakşehir have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Başakşehir, 1 for Antalyaspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Antalyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor trading profile (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 49% versus Antalyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 51% | Antalyaspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.55 xG and Antalyaspor 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.009 / defence 1.099 | Antalyaspor attack 1.043 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.430. Data: 52 Başakşehir games / 51 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 36% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 40%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Antalyaspor 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antalyaspor at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Başakşehir (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. This conflicts with form data: Başakşehir 20% | Antalyaspor 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 36% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Başakşehir 1.55 / Antalyaspor 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.009 / def 1.099 | Antalyaspor attack 1.043 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Antalyaspor xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Tuesday 27 December 2022 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Başakşehir 2 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 36% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Başakşehir and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Antalyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Başakşehir 1W | Draws 0 | Antalyaspor 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and Antalyaspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.01) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
36%
2.80
25%
4.05
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.19
1.64
Antalyaspor xG
2.80
36%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
19%
5.15
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
7%
14.41
8%
11.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.64 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 27W 11D 13L from 51 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 18L across 51 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.80 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 16W 3D 5L from 24 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 8W 5D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.43 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 27W 11D 13L in their last 51 games (1.80 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 21W 12D 18L in their last 51 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Antalyaspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.12 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Antalyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Başakşehir won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Başakşehir
3
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 5, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Başakşehir 0-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Antalyaspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 42%, Antalyaspor 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Başakşehir) and 50% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 46% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Başakşehir's recent games and 50% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Antalyaspor 2-0 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.55 xG and Antalyaspor 1.64 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Antalyaspor landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.01 / defence 1.10 against Antalyaspor attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 36% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 40%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Başakşehir win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 51%, Antalyaspor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.80 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.