Başakşehir 0-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Antalyaspor at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 14 March 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Başakşehir at 1.50 PPG versus Antalyaspor's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Başakşehir, 0 for Antalyaspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Başakşehir winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 57% versus Antalyaspor 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 57% | Antalyaspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.43 xG and Antalyaspor 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 0.997 / defence 1.061 | Antalyaspor attack 0.556 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.246. Data: 28 Başakşehir games / 28 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 53% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Antalyaspor 5.26. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. This conflicts with form data: Başakşehir 80% | Antalyaspor 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 14 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 53% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG Başakşehir 1.43 / Antalyaspor 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 0.997 / def 1.061 | Antalyaspor attack 0.556 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Antalyaspor xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 14 March 2022 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Başakşehir 0 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 53% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Başakşehir and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Antalyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Başakşehir 1W | Draws 0 | Antalyaspor 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Antalyaspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.00) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
53%
1.88
28%
3.60
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.17
0.73
Antalyaspor xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
5%
22.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.1 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.73 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 14W 5D 9L from 28 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 11L across 28 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Başakşehir by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Antalyaspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 9W 1D 4L from 14 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 2W 4D 8L across 14 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.04 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 14W 5D 9L in their last 28 games (1.68 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 9W 8D 11L in their last 28 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Antalyaspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.00 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Antalyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Başakşehir won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Başakşehir
3
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 5, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Başakşehir 0-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Antalyaspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Antalyaspor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 57%, Antalyaspor 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Başakşehir) and 43% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 36% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Başakşehir's recent games and 43% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antalyaspor defy the odds to beat Başakşehir 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Başakşehir 0-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.43 xG and Antalyaspor 0.73 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Antalyaspor attack 0.56 / defence 1.18, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 53% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 19%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Antalyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 57%, Antalyaspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Antalyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.