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Stalemate at Başakşehir's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir and Antalyaspor finished level at 0-0 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.50 xG and Antalyaspor 0.73 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Başakşehir fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.25 / defence 1.06 against Antalyaspor attack 0.57 / defence 0.88, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 53% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 15%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 60%, Antalyaspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights