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Poisson model favours Başakşehir (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Başakşehir face Antalyaspor.

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Match Analysis

Başakşehir host Antalyaspor at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Başakşehir have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Başakşehir have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 9 past contests while Antalyaspor have managed just 2 wins.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 4–0 with Başakşehir winning.

The historical record gives Başakşehir a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Başakşehir trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Antalyaspor trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 58% versus Antalyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 60% | Antalyaspor 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.50 xG and Antalyaspor 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.252 / defence 1.060 | Antalyaspor attack 0.569 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.206. Başakşehir carry an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — their λ of 1.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 Başakşehir games / 62 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Başakşehir 53% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 15%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.89 | Draw 3.12 | Antalyaspor 6.67. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 80% | Antalyaspor 20%.

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