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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Başakşehir and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir and Alanyaspor finished level at 1-1 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.23 xG and Alanyaspor 1.30 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against Alanyaspor attack 1.13 / defence 1.07, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 33% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 37%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 55%, Alanyaspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.48 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights