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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 20, as Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.45 xG and Trabzonspor 2.60 xG, a combined 4.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Trabzonspor landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.46 against Trabzonspor attack 1.38 / defence 1.13, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 18% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 60%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 56%, Trabzonspor 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Trabzonspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights