Antalyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Antalyaspor face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 20 as Antalyaspor welcome Trabzonspor to Corendon Airlines Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 January 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Antalyaspor — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Corendon Airlines Park this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Trabzonspor — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Antalyaspor register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Trabzonspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Trabzonspor have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against Antalyaspor's 2 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Trabzonspor winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Trabzonspor have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 54% versus Trabzonspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 56% | Trabzonspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.45 xG and Trabzonspor 2.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.982 / defence 1.458 | Trabzonspor attack 1.381 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.289. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.381 — the away xG of 2.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Antalyaspor games / 55 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 18% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 60%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 5.56 | Draw 4.55 | Trabzonspor 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.04. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.04 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 2.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 80% | Trabzonspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 18% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 73% | xG Antalyaspor 1.45 / Trabzonspor 2.60 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.982 / def 1.458 | Trabzonspor attack 1.381 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
2.60
Trabzonspor xG
73%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 30 January 2026 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Antalyaspor 1 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 18% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 60% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (9 meetings): Antalyaspor 2W | Draws 2 | Trabzonspor 5W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (0.98) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 2.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.4%), 1-3 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
18%
5.58
22%
4.59
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.4%
Away win
1 – 1
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
4.04
2.60
Trabzonspor xG
5.58
18%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.67
Clean Sheet
7%
13.42
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
1%
74.91
14%
7.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 2.60 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 4.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 17W 12D 26L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 25W 17D 13L from 55 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antalyaspor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.52 PPG from 27 outings (12W 5D 10L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 9W 8D 10L from 27 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.73 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 17W 12D 26L in their last 55 games (1.15 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 25W 17D 13L in their last 55 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.52 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Jan 2025, when Trabzonspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
3
Draws
5
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Antalyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 67%, Trabzonspor 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Antalyaspor) and 52% (Trabzonspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor in 33%; Antalyaspor have failed to score in 26% of games; Trabzonspor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Antalyaspor's games and 59% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Antalyaspor's matches and 52% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 20, as Antalyaspor and Trabzonspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.45 xG and Trabzonspor 2.60 xG, a combined 4.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Trabzonspor landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.46 against Trabzonspor attack 1.38 / defence 1.13, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 18% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 60%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 56%, Trabzonspor 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.