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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Antalyaspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Samsunspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antalyaspor beat Samsunspor 3-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.17 xG and Samsunspor 1.75 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.96 / defence 1.30 against Samsunspor attack 1.02 / defence 0.94, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 22% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 48%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Antalyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 54%, Samsunspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Samsunspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Antalyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Samsunspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights