🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Samsunspor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antalyaspor beat Samsunspor 2-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.17 xG and Samsunspor 1.07 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Samsunspor attack 0.88 / defence 0.77, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 37% | Draw 30% | Samsunspor 32%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 52%, Samsunspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Samsunspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.29 PPG, Samsunspor 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights