Antalyaspor 3-2 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Antalya Stadyumu plays host to Antalyaspor versus Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Friday 27 August 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rizespor have collected 0.50 PPG across 2 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 1D 1L. Last five: L D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Antalyaspor, 0.50 for Rizespor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.20 xG and Rizespor 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.973 / defence 1.135 | Rizespor attack 0.708 / defence 1.403. League average goals — home 0.876 / away 1.144. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.403 — this is suppressing Antalyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Antalyaspor games / 2 Rizespor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 35% | Rizespor 25%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.56 | Draw 2.86 | Rizespor 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Antalya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 35% | Rizespor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Antalyaspor 1.20 / Rizespor 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.973 / def 1.135 | Rizespor attack 0.708 / def 1.403 | league avg home 0.876 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Rizespor xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Antalya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Antalyaspor 3 - 2 Rizespor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Antalya Stadyumu.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Rizespor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 39% chance of winning, Rizespor a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Antalyaspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Rizespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antalyaspor and Rizespor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L. Rizespor (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (0.97) and Rizespor's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.71x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
39%
2.54
35%
2.82
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.11
0.92
Rizespor xG
2.54
39%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
8%
13.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.92 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rizespor's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.50 PPG for Antalyaspor against 0.50 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rizespor in 0%.
Defensively: Rizespor in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Early Season
Rizespor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Antalyaspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Rizespor in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Rizespor go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won 3-0 on 14 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
1
Draws
5
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Rizespor have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Rizespor 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Rizespor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 0% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 50% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Rizespor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Rizespor 3-2 at Antalya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.20 xG and Rizespor 0.92 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rizespor outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.14 against Rizespor attack 0.71 / defence 1.40, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 35% | Rizespor 25%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 0%, Rizespor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 0.50 PPG, Rizespor 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Rizespor scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.