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Dominant Rizespor run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Antalyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rizespor beat Antalyaspor 2-5 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.30 xG and Rizespor 1.12 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Rizespor outscored their 1.12 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Rizespor attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 38% | Draw 33% | Rizespor 29%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Rizespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 55%, Rizespor 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Rizespor's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.26 PPG, Rizespor 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights