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Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Rizespor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antalyaspor beat Rizespor 2-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.56 xG and Rizespor 1.33 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.03 against Rizespor attack 1.10 / defence 1.13, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 42% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 32%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 49%, Rizespor 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Rizespor's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.25 PPG, Rizespor 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights