🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Konyaspor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Antalyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Konyaspor beat Antalyaspor 0-2 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.90 xG and Konyaspor 1.56 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.13 / defence 1.31 against Konyaspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.19, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 44% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 30%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 55%, Konyaspor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Konyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.11 PPG, Konyaspor 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights