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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 44%, yet in-form Konyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Antalyaspor and Konyaspor meet at Corendon Airlines Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 3W 2D 5L at Corendon Airlines Park — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Konyaspor have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Konyaspor's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Konyaspor are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Antalyaspor register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Konyaspor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Antalyaspor, 1 for Konyaspor and 6 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Konyaspor — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 54% versus Konyaspor 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 55% | Konyaspor 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.90 xG and Konyaspor 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.128 / defence 1.308 | Konyaspor attack 1.006 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.186. Data: 65 Antalyaspor games / 65 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 44% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Konyaspor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Konyaspor (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 80% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

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