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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Konyaspor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antalyaspor beat Konyaspor 1-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.64 xG and Konyaspor 1.16 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Konyaspor attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 48% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 27%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 51%, Konyaspor 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Konyaspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.29 PPG, Konyaspor 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights