🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Kocaelispor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antalyaspor beat Kocaelispor 1-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.31 xG and Kocaelispor 0.94 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kocaelispor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.22 against Kocaelispor attack 0.69 / defence 0.98, drawn from 69/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 42% | Draw 35% | Kocaelispor 24%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 52%, Kocaelispor 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Kocaelispor's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 0.88 PPG, Kocaelispor 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights