Antalyaspor 0-2 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Antalyaspor host Kasımpaşa at Corendon Airlines Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Antalyaspor at Corendon Airlines Park this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Antalyaspor at 1.80 PPG versus Kasımpaşa's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Antalyaspor, 0 for Kasımpaşa and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 4–2 with Antalyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Antalyaspor trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 57% versus Kasımpaşa 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 52% | Kasımpaşa 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 2.25 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.353 / defence 1.047 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.008 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.195. Antalyaspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — their λ of 2.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Antalyaspor games / 42 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 60% | Draw 20% | Kasımpaşa 21%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Kasımpaşa 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Antalyaspor (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 60% | Kasımpaşa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 60% | Draw 20% | Kasımpaşa 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 64% | xG Antalyaspor 2.25 / Kasımpaşa 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.353 / def 1.047 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.008 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Kasımpaşa xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Antalyaspor 0 - 2 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 60% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (2 meetings): Antalyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 1.35x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
60%
1.67
20%
5.07
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
3.51
1.26
Kasımpaşa xG
1.67
60%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
11%
9.51
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
2%
46.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.26 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor come into this having played 42 games, going 18W 11D 13L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.33 PPG from 42 outings (16W 8D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.55 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Antalyaspor's home form reads 11W 6D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 1.19 points per game from 21 outings (7W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.62 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 18W 11D 13L in their last 42 games (1.55 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 16W 8D 18L in their last 42 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.86 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Antalyaspor
4
Draws
3
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 3, Kasımpaşa have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-0 Antalyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 67%, Kasımpaşa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Antalyaspor) and 52% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Antalyaspor's games and 52% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 52% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Antalyaspor 0-2 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 2.25 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.26 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.35 / defence 1.05 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.01 / defence 1.14, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 60% | Draw 20% | Kasımpaşa 21%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Kasımpaşa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 52%, Kasımpaşa 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.55 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.