Antalyaspor 1-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Antalyaspor host Kasımpaşa at Antalya Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 21 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor at Antalya Stadyumu this season: 5W 1D 3L from 9 home games — 1.78 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 0W 2D 6L from 8 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
On current form, Antalyaspor have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Antalyaspor trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 53% versus Kasımpaşa 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 53% | Kasımpaşa 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.57 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.084 / defence 1.064 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.622 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.162. Kasımpaşa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Antalyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Antalyaspor games / 17 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 56% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 18%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Kasımpaşa 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Antalyaspor (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 67% | Kasımpaşa 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Antalya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 56% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Antalyaspor 1.57 / Kasımpaşa 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.084 / def 1.064 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.622 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Kasımpaşa xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 14:00 on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at Antalya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Antalyaspor 1 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Antalya Stadyumu.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 56% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 1.08x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.80
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.34
0.77
Kasımpaşa xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
4%
27.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.77 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor come into this having played 17 games, going 6W 3D 8L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 0.65 PPG from 17 outings (2W 5D 10L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Antalyaspor's home form reads 5W 0D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 0.25 points per game from 8 outings (0W 2D 6L). That's a step down from their 0.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kasımpaşa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 0.94 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 6W 3D 8L in their last 17 games (1.24 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 5D 10L in their last 17 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.88 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Antalyaspor
4
Draws
3
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 3, Kasımpaşa have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-0 Antalyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 62%, Kasımpaşa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Antalyaspor) and 38% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Antalyaspor's games and 50% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Antalyaspor's matches and 38% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Antalya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, as Antalyaspor and Kasımpaşa drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.57 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.77 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.08 / defence 1.06 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.62 / defence 1.23, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 56% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 18%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 53%, Kasımpaşa 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Antalyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.