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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Kasımpaşa 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antalyaspor beat Kasımpaşa 2-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.43 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.35 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.88 / defence 0.93 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.09 / defence 0.99, drawn from 36/36 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 35%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 56%, Kasımpaşa 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.22 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights