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Shock result as Antalyaspor defy the odds to beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antalyaspor beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.29 xG and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.43 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.50 against Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.73 / defence 1.08, drawn from 54/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 30% | Draw 33% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 37%, with Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Antalyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 56%, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 0.89 PPG, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights