Antalyaspor 0-0 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 55%, yet in-form Gaziantep FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gaziantep FK make the trip to Antalya Stadyumu to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Antalyaspor (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Antalya Stadyumu, Antalyaspor have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Antalya Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Gaziantep FK have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Gaziantep FK are 1.10 PPG clear of Antalyaspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.90 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Antalyaspor lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Gaziantep FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 52% versus Gaziantep FK 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 52% | Gaziantep FK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.48 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.028 / defence 1.098 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.580 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.088. Gaziantep FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Antalyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Antalyaspor games / 21 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 55% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 17%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Gaziantep FK 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Antalyaspor (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gaziantep FK (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 70% | Gaziantep FK 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Antalya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 55% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 39% | xG Antalyaspor 1.48 / Gaziantep FK 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.028 / def 1.098 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.580 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Gaziantep FK xG
39%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Antalya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Antalyaspor 0 - 0 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Antalya Stadyumu.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 55% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (1 meetings): Antalyaspor 0W | Draws 0 | Gaziantep FK 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 1.03x the league average against Gaziantep FK's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gaziantep FK's attack (0.58x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
55%
1.81
28%
3.54
17%
6.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.17
0.69
Gaziantep FK xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
6.01
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
4%
26.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 11.7 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.69 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 6W 4D 11L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gaziantep FK's form line: 9W 4D 8L from 21 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Gaziantep FK are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antalyaspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.70 PPG from 10 outings (5W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gaziantep FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.29 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 6W 4D 11L in their last 21 games (1.05 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 9W 4D 8L in their last 21 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.70 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Gaziantep FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gaziantep FK won 5-2 on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
6
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Gaziantep FK have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Antalyaspor 1-4 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Gaziantep FK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 70%, Gaziantep FK 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Antalyaspor) and 40% (Gaziantep FK).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Gaziantep FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 30% of Gaziantep FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 40% of Gaziantep FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Antalyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Antalya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, as Antalyaspor and Gaziantep FK drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.48 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.69 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.03 / defence 1.10 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.58 / defence 1.23, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 55% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 17%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 52%, Gaziantep FK 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Gaziantep FK arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.