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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Gaziantep FK run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Antalyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gaziantep FK beat Antalyaspor 1-4 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.70 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.30 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Gaziantep FK outscored their 1.30 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.14 / defence 1.23 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 30% | Gaziantep FK 26%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Gaziantep FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 54%, Gaziantep FK 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.11 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gaziantep FK win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights