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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Gaziantep FK make the trip to Corendon Airlines Park to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Antalyaspor (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Gaziantep FK have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Gaziantep FK away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Antalyaspor against 0.70 for Gaziantep FK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Across the last 9 meetings, Gaziantep FK have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Antalyaspor's 2, with 2 draws in the mix.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 2–3 with Gaziantep FK winning.

It is worth noting that Gaziantep FK have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 54% versus Gaziantep FK 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 54% | Gaziantep FK 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.70 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.136 / defence 1.234 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.861 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.226. Data: 61 Antalyaspor games / 61 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 30% | Gaziantep FK 26%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Gaziantep FK 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 90% | Gaziantep FK 50% BTTS from recent games.

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