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Shock result as Fatih Karagümrük defy the odds to beat Antalyaspor 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fatih Karagümrük beat Antalyaspor 1-2 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.77 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.86 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.91 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.73 / defence 1.27, drawn from 39/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 58% | Draw 24% | Fatih Karagümrük 17%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Fatih Karagümrük win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 0%, Fatih Karagümrük 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Antalyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Fatih Karagümrük winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Antalyaspor shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fatih Karagümrük scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights