Antalyaspor 2-3 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 41%, yet in-form Beşiktaş provide a compelling counter-argument — this Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beşiktaş make the trip to Antalya Stadyumu to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Antalyaspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 4 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 1D 2L. Last five: D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 0.00. 4 clean sheets from 4 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Beşiktaş are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Antalyaspor 50% | Beşiktaş 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Antalyaspor 25% | Beşiktaş 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.20 xG and Beşiktaş 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.070 / defence 1.249 | Beşiktaş attack 0.739 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.129 / away 1.072. Data: 4 Antalyaspor games / 4 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 41% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 30%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Beşiktaş 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beşiktaş (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 50% | Beşiktaş 0% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Antalya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 41% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Antalyaspor 1.20 / Beşiktaş 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.070 / def 1.249 | Beşiktaş attack 0.739 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.129 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Beşiktaş xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Antalya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Antalyaspor 2 - 3 Beşiktaş.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Antalya Stadyumu.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 41% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.75 | L5 D-L-W-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-1D-0L in 4 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.74x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
41%
2.44
29%
3.45
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.19
0.99
Beşiktaş xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
9%
11.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.99 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antalyaspor come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.75 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 0%.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
Have Antalyaspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Beşiktaş have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
3
Draws
5
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Beşiktaş 4-2 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antalyaspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (Antalyaspor) and 0% (Beşiktaş) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Antalyaspor) and 50% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş in 100%; Antalyaspor have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 0% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 50% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beşiktaş defy the odds to beat Antalyaspor 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Antalyaspor 2-3 at Antalya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.20 xG and Beşiktaş 0.99 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Beşiktaş outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.07 / defence 1.25 against Beşiktaş attack 0.74 / defence 1.00, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 41% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 30%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 25%, Beşiktaş 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Antalyaspor scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.