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Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Antalyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beşiktaş beat Antalyaspor 1-3 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 0.97 xG and Beşiktaş 2.12 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Beşiktaş outscored their 2.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.51 against Beşiktaş attack 1.08 / defence 0.85, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 14% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 62%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 55%, Beşiktaş 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights