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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antalyaspor and Beşiktaş finished level at 1-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.22 xG and Beşiktaş 1.37 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.24 against Beşiktaş attack 0.92 / defence 0.80, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 31% | Draw 31% | Beşiktaş 38%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 49%, Beşiktaş 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.23 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights