Antalyaspor 1-2 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 10 as Antalyaspor welcome Başakşehir to Antalya Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 1.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 2W 1D 2L at Antalya Stadyumu — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Başakşehir — All Games: 3W 0D 6L from 9 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's away record: 0W 0D 4L from 4 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Antalyaspor) versus 1.00 (Başakşehir). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 56% versus Başakşehir 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 44% | Başakşehir 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.57 xG and Başakşehir 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.934 / defence 1.327 | Başakşehir attack 0.767 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.137. Başakşehir bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Antalyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Antalyaspor games / 9 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 47% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 28%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Başakşehir 3.57. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 80% | Başakşehir 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Antalya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 47% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Antalyaspor 1.57 / Başakşehir 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.934 / def 1.327 | Başakşehir attack 0.767 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Başakşehir xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Antalya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Antalyaspor 1 - 2 Başakşehir.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Antalya Stadyumu.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 47% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Antalyaspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Başakşehir?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.56 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 3W-0D-6L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
47%
2.13
25%
4.00
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.73
1.16
Başakşehir xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
6%
17.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.16 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 2W 3D 4L from 9 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 6L across 9 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.00 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 0W 0D 4L across 4 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Başakşehir's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.22 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 3W 0D 6L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.50 PPG; Başakşehir away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Başakşehir won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
3
Draws
5
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Başakşehir have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Başakşehir 0-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Antalyaspor at 75%, Başakşehir at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Antalyaspor and 75% for Başakşehir. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Antalyaspor's games and 75% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Antalyaspor's matches and 75% of Başakşehir's.
Do Antalyaspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Başakşehir defy the odds to beat Antalyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Antalyaspor 1-2 at Antalya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.57 xG and Başakşehir 1.16 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Başakşehir outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.33 against Başakşehir attack 0.77 / defence 1.36, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 47% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 28%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Başakşehir win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 44%, Başakşehir 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.00 PPG, Başakşehir 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.