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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Alanyaspor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antalyaspor beat Alanyaspor 2-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.39 xG and Alanyaspor 0.87 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Alanyaspor attack 0.72 / defence 0.97, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 49% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 23%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 51%, Alanyaspor 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.26 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights