Ankaragücü 0-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ankaragücü at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Eryaman Stadyumu plays host to Ankaragücü versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 29 April 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Ankaragücü (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankaragücü have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kasımpaşa have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Kasımpaşa's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Ankaragücü, 1.40 for Kasımpaşa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ankaragücü 0W, Kasımpaşa 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ankaragücü — key trading statistics (29 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (29 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ankaragücü 62% versus Kasımpaşa 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 59% | Kasımpaşa 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.54 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.913 / defence 1.093 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.733 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.392. Data: 29 Ankaragücü games / 68 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 47% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 28%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Kasımpaşa 3.57. Ankaragücü hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ankaragücü are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ankaragücü if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ankaragücü 60% | Kasımpaşa 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 47% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Ankaragücü 1.54 / Kasımpaşa 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.913 / def 1.093 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.733 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Ankaragücü (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Kasımpaşa xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa?
Ankaragücü 0 - 0 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 47% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ankaragücü the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa?
Record (1 meetings): Ankaragücü 0W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa in?
Ankaragücü (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ankaragücü's attack rating (0.91) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (0.73x) against Ankaragücü's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 29/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ankaragücü Win
47%
2.13
25%
3.93
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
2.65
1.11
Kasımpaşa xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
6%
16.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 1.11 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ankaragücü's recent record stands at 10W 4D 15L from 29 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 14L across 29 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Ankaragücü against 1.14 for Kasımpaşa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ankaragücü have managed 6W 1D 6L from 13 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 3W 3D 7L across 13 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ankaragücü come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.28 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Current Season
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 10W 4D 15L in their last 29 games (1.17 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 9W 6D 14L in their last 29 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Ankaragücü's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 1.46 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ankaragücü have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ankaragücü
2
Draws
1
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa?
From 4 meetings on record, Ankaragücü have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Ankaragücü 3-1 Kasımpaşa.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ankaragücü 69%, Kasımpaşa 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Ankaragücü) and 46% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa in 31%; Kasımpaşa in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ankaragücü play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Ankaragücü's recent matches and 38% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ankaragücü vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Ankaragücü's matches and 46% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Ankaragücü have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ankaragücü's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, as Ankaragücü and Kasımpaşa drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.54 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.11 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ankaragücü fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Kasımpaşa landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.91 / defence 1.09 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.73 / defence 0.99, drawn from 29/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 47% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 28%, with Ankaragücü to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 59%, Kasımpaşa 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (29 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (29 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ankaragücü 1.17 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ankaragücü (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.