Ankaragücü 4-1 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ankaragücü at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ankaragücü host Hatayspor at Eryaman Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 October 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ankaragücü — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ankaragücü's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 games at Eryaman Stadyumu this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Hatayspor have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ankaragücü at 0.80 PPG versus Hatayspor's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Ankaragücü trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Hatayspor trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ankaragücü 70% versus Hatayspor 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 70% | Hatayspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.33 xG and Hatayspor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.846 / defence 1.294 | Hatayspor attack 0.730 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.268. Data: 10 Ankaragücü games / 48 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 40% | Draw 27% | Hatayspor 34%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Hatayspor 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ankaragücü at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ankaragücü offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ankaragücü 60% | Hatayspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 40% | Draw 27% | Hatayspor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Ankaragücü 1.33 / Hatayspor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.846 / def 1.294 | Hatayspor attack 0.730 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Ankaragücü (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Hatayspor xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor?
Ankaragücü 4 - 1 Hatayspor.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor part of?
Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 40% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ankaragücü the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ankaragücü and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Hatayspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ankaragücü and Hatayspor in?
Ankaragücü (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ankaragücü's attack rating (0.85) and Hatayspor's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Ankaragücü's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ankaragücü Win
40%
2.52
27%
3.74
34%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
2.53
1.20
Hatayspor xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.99
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
9%
11.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 1.20 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ankaragücü's recent record stands at 2W 2D 6L from 10 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 6L across 10 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ankaragücü on 0.80 PPG, Hatayspor on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ankaragücü have managed 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hatayspor's away record stands at 1W 0D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hatayspor's season.
The Goals Picture
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 0.70 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ankaragücü and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Hatayspor away?
Ankaragücü's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 0.80 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ankaragücü and Hatayspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when Ankaragücü won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ankaragücü's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ankaragücü
1
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Hatayspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Ankaragücü have won 2, Hatayspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Hatayspor 2-1 Ankaragücü.
Who has won more matches between Ankaragücü and Hatayspor?
Ankaragücü have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ankaragücü 60%, Hatayspor 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Ankaragücü and 40% for Hatayspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ankaragücü have failed to score in 40% of games; Hatayspor in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ankaragücü play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Ankaragücü's recent matches and 20% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ankaragücü vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Ankaragücü's matches and 40% of Hatayspor's.
Do Ankaragücü and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Ankaragücü have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ankaragücü run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ankaragücü beat Hatayspor 4-1 at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.33 xG and Hatayspor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Ankaragücü beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.85 / defence 1.29 against Hatayspor attack 0.73 / defence 1.16, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 40% | Draw 27% | Hatayspor 34%, with Ankaragücü to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 70%, Hatayspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Hatayspor's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ankaragücü 0.80 PPG, Hatayspor 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ankaragücü win broke the near-deadlock. Ankaragücü (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.