Ankaragücü 0-2 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Fatih Karagümrük travel to Eryaman Stadyumu to take on Ankaragücü. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023, 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ankaragücü — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ankaragücü's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Eryaman Stadyumu this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fatih Karagümrük stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ankaragücü at 1.40 PPG versus Fatih Karagümrük's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ankaragücü have won 0, Fatih Karagümrük 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–4 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ankaragücü trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ankaragücü 70% and Fatih Karagümrük 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ankaragücü 60% | Fatih Karagümrük 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.41 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.760 / defence 1.174 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.274 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.399. Ankaragücü's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fatih Karagümrük have an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — the away xG of 2.09 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 20 Ankaragücü games / 58 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 26% | Draw 21% | Fatih Karagümrük 53%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 3.85 | Draw 4.76 | Fatih Karagümrük 1.89. Fatih Karagümrük hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 2.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean.
Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Ankaragücü 70% | Fatih Karagümrük 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 26% | Draw 21% | Fatih Karagümrük 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG Ankaragücü 1.41 / Fatih Karagümrük 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.760 / def 1.174 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.274 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.637 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
2.09
Fatih Karagümrük xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Ankaragücü 0 - 2 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 26% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 53% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Ankaragücü and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (1 meetings): Ankaragücü 0W | Draws 0 | Fatih Karagümrük 1W.
What form are Ankaragücü and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Ankaragücü (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ankaragücü's attack at 0.76x the league average against Fatih Karagümrük's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Ankaragücü's defence, projects 2.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
26%
3.91
21%
4.71
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
0 – 2
6.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
3.50
2.09
Fatih Karagümrük xG
3.91
26%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
12%
8.10
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
3%
31.69
13%
7.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 2.09 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ankaragücü's recent record stands at 6W 4D 10L from 20 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 5W 8D 7L across 20 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-D-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ankaragücü on 1.10 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ankaragücü have managed 3W 2D 5L from 10 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 2W 4D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 2.05 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Fatih Karagümrük in 80%.
Last 20 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ankaragücü and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 6W 4D 10L in their last 20 games (1.10 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 5W 8D 7L in their last 20 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Ankaragücü's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 1.10 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2022, when Fatih Karagümrük won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ankaragücü's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ankaragücü
1
Draws
2
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 4 meetings on record, Ankaragücü have won 1, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2024, when Ankaragücü 2-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Ankaragücü and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ankaragücü at 70%, Fatih Karagümrük at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Ankaragücü and 80% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 70% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ankaragücü have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ankaragücü play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Ankaragücü's games and 80% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ankaragücü vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Ankaragücü's matches and 80% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Ankaragücü and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Ankaragücü have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ankaragücü.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Ankaragücü 0-2 at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.41 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 2.09 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ankaragücü fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.76 / defence 1.17 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.27 / defence 1.13, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 26% | Draw 21% | Fatih Karagümrük 53%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 60%, Fatih Karagümrük 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ankaragücü 1.10 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Ankaragücü (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.