Altay 1-0 Yeni Malatyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Altay at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Altay vs Yeni Malatyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Altay host Yeni Malatyaspor at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 March 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Altay stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Altay have posted 2W 2D 6L at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Yeni Malatyaspor — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Yeni Malatyaspor have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Altay 0.80 PPG, Yeni Malatyaspor 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Altay, 1 for Yeni Malatyaspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Yeni Malatyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Altay in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Yeni Malatyaspor in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 15% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Altay 54% versus Yeni Malatyaspor 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Altay 54% | Yeni Malatyaspor 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Altay 1.09 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Altay attack 0.742 / defence 1.284 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.550 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.188. Altay's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Yeni Malatyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Altay's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Altay games / 28 Yeni Malatyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Altay 41% | Draw 32% | Yeni Malatyaspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Altay 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Yeni Malatyaspor 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Altay are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Altay offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Altay 60% | Yeni Malatyaspor 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Altay vs Yeni Malatyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Altay 41% | Draw 32% | Yeni Malatyaspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Altay 1.09 / Yeni Malatyaspor 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Altay attack 0.742 / def 1.284 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.550 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Altay (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Altay xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Altay vs Yeni Malatyaspor kick off?
Altay vs Yeni Malatyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı.
What was the final score in Altay vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Altay 1 - 0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Where is Altay vs Yeni Malatyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı.
What competition is Altay vs Yeni Malatyaspor part of?
Altay vs Yeni Malatyaspor is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Altay vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Altay a 41% chance of winning, Yeni Malatyaspor a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Altay the favourite.
Will both teams score in Altay vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Altay and Yeni Malatyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Altay vs Yeni Malatyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Altay 0W | Draws 0 | Yeni Malatyaspor 1W.
What form are Altay and Yeni Malatyaspor in?
Altay (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Altay's attack rating (0.74) and Yeni Malatyaspor's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Yeni Malatyaspor's attack versus Altay's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Altay Win
41%
2.47
32%
3.09
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Altay xG
Total xG
1.93
0.84
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
9%
11.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 12.2 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Altay vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Altay and Yeni Malatyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Altay and 0.84 for Yeni Malatyaspor, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Altay vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Altay come into this having played 28 games, going 7W 5D 16L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Yeni Malatyaspor sit at 0.71 PPG from 28 outings (5W 5D 18L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Altay on 0.93 PPG, Yeni Malatyaspor on 0.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Altay's home form reads 4W 2D 7L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Yeni Malatyaspor have taken 0.38 points per game from 13 outings (1W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Altay come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Altay are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Yeni Malatyaspor are on 0.82 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Altay
Current Season
Yeni Malatyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Altay and Yeni Malatyaspor in coming into this match?
Altay have gone 7W 5D 16L in their last 28 games (0.93 PPG), while Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 5W 5D 18L in their last 28 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Altay at home or Yeni Malatyaspor away?
Altay's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Altay at home: 1.08 PPG; Yeni Malatyaspor away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Altay and Yeni Malatyaspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Altay
0
Draws
1
Yeni Malatyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Yeni Malatyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Altay have won 1, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Altay and Yeni Malatyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Altay 1-0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Altay are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Yeni Malatyaspor see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Altay 54% BTTS, Yeni Malatyaspor 15%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Altay) and 23% (Yeni Malatyaspor).
On the defensive side: Altay have failed to score in 38% of games; Yeni Malatyaspor in 77%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Altay home games / Yeni Malatyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Altay play Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Altay's recent matches and 15% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Altay vs Yeni Malatyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Altay's recent games and 23% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Altay and Yeni Malatyaspor tend to score early?
Altay have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Yeni Malatyaspor in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Altay edge out Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Altay beat Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0 at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Altay 1.09 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.84 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Yeni Malatyaspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Altay attack 0.74 / defence 1.28 against Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.55 / defence 1.24, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Altay 41% | Draw 32% | Yeni Malatyaspor 27%, with Altay to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Altay 54%, Yeni Malatyaspor 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Altay's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Altay 0.93 PPG, Yeni Malatyaspor 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Altay win broke the near-deadlock. Altay (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.