Altay 0-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Altay at 43%, yet in-form Rizespor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Altay vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 25 as Altay welcome Rizespor to Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Altay — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Altay, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı, Altay have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Rizespor have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Rizespor's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Altay's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Altay, 0 for Rizespor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Altay winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Altay trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rizespor trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Altay 58% versus Rizespor 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Altay 58% | Rizespor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Altay 1.13 xG and Rizespor 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Altay attack 0.670 / defence 1.285 | Rizespor attack 0.548 / defence 1.485. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.102. Altay's attack strength of 0.670 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.485 — this is suppressing Altay's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Altay games / 24 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Altay 43% | Draw 32% | Rizespor 24%. Fair-value odds: Altay 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Rizespor 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Altay at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rizespor (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Altay offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Altay 60% | Rizespor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Altay vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı • Kick-off: Friday 11 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Altay 43% | Draw 32% | Rizespor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Altay 1.13 / Rizespor 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Altay attack 0.670 / def 1.285 | Rizespor attack 0.548 / def 1.485 | league avg home 1.138 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Altay (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Altay xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Rizespor xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Altay vs Rizespor kick off?
Altay vs Rizespor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 11 February 2022 at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı.
What was the final score in Altay vs Rizespor?
Altay 0 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Altay vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı.
What competition is Altay vs Rizespor part of?
Altay vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Altay vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Altay a 43% chance of winning, Rizespor a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Altay the favourite.
Will both teams score in Altay vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Altay and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Altay vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Rizespor?
Record (1 meetings): Altay 1W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 0W.
What form are Altay and Rizespor in?
Altay (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Rizespor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Altay's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Altay's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Altay Win
43%
2.30
32%
3.12
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Altay xG
Total xG
1.91
0.78
Rizespor xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
8%
12.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Altay vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Altay and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Altay and 0.78 for Rizespor, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Altay vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Altay have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 6W 3D 15L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Altay is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rizespor's form line: 6W 4D 14L from 24 games, 0.92 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Altay on 0.88 PPG, Rizespor on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Altay have posted 0.91 PPG from 11 outings (3W 1D 7L).
On the road, Rizespor have gone 0W 2D 9L from 11 away games — 0.18 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Altay come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Altay are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 0.92 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Altay
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Altay and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Altay have gone 6W 3D 15L in their last 24 games (0.88 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 6W 4D 14L in their last 24 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Altay at home or Rizespor away?
Altay's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Altay at home: 0.91 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Altay and Rizespor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Altay
1
Draws
0
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Rizespor?
From 2 meetings on record, Altay have won 1, Rizespor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Altay and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2022, when Altay 0-0 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Altay and Rizespor?
Altay have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Altay are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Altay 54%, Rizespor 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Altay) and 64% (Rizespor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 9% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Altay have failed to score in 36% of games; Rizespor in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Altay home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Altay play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Altay's recent matches and 36% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Altay vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Altay's matches and 64% of Rizespor's.
Do Altay and Rizespor tend to score early?
Altay have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Altay's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Altay and Rizespor finished level at 0-0 at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Altay 1.13 xG and Rizespor 0.78 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Altay fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Altay attack 0.67 / defence 1.28 against Rizespor attack 0.55 / defence 1.49, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Altay 43% | Draw 32% | Rizespor 24%, with Altay to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Altay 58%, Rizespor 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Altay's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rizespor's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Altay 0.88 PPG, Rizespor 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Altay (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.